How the Navy Could Lose a War to China in 2020

    Harry J. Kazianis


    Yes, this could happen. We explain how. 

    While Kraska’s article certainly introduced this issue to a much broader audience, America’s armed forces had been aware of the problem for some time. Over the last ten years (or possibly more), the U.S. military has been working to ensure that various types of anti-access technologies—not just the much-discussed DF-21D carrier-killer missile Kraska depicts—won’t limit or altogether negate American power-projection capabilities across all domains of possible conflict, kinetic or otherwise.

    Back in the Winter 2010 edition of Orbisthe always smart James Kraska, at the time an investigator at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, presented his readers with a terrifying prospect: the possibility that China would be able sink a U.S. Aircraft Carriervirtually at will. In professional publicationsthe possibility had been raised before. However, thanks to various mentions in more-mainstream media, the rise of China’s military mightand specifically advanced missile technologywould soon become a dominant topic of conversation in national-security circles around the globe.

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