According to investor Peter Schiff, the dollar will only depreciate in the ongoing trade war with China. Schiff claims the notion of a “dollar shortage” because of the tariffs on Chinese goods is “complete nonsense.”
“The thinking is – at least when it comes to trade – is that the dollar is going to benefit from a trade war, which I think is wrong. I think it’s just as wrongheaded as the concept that the dollar is going to benefit from larger budget deficits,” Schiff said, according to Seeking Alpha.
President Donald Trump has levied even more tariffs on Chinese imports in retaliation for China’s retaliation after the US announced its first round of tariffs. A lot of people seem to think this is bullish for the dollar and as a matter of fact, the greenback has surged in recent weeks. But in his latest podcast, Peter Schiff said this is a bunch of nonsense. “The force will not be with us,” is the aptly named podcast in which Schiff discusses the collapse of the United States dollar.
Peter called the notion that budget deficits make for a “strong dollar” an “asinine theory.” The enormous deficit coupled with the Fed shrinking its balance sheet means we will see trillions of dollars in Treasuries hit the market, and that’s not a good thing for the greenback.
“The thinking is – at least when it comes to trade – is that the dollar is going to benefit from a trade war, which I think is wrong. I think it’s just as wrongheaded as the concept that the dollar is going to benefit from larger budget deficits.“
He explains that the excessive amount of dollars will be provided by the mint of US treasury bonds.
“You’ve got a treasury, you’ve got a dollar. I mean, what’s the difference between a 30-day treasury bill and a dollar? You know, they’re pretty much the same thing. The only difference is people don’t readily spend their treasuries, right? They don’t go into a store and purchase something with a treasury. But they can. They can cash it in and buy something. But they’re effectively dollars. So, even though the Federal Reserve, in theory, will be shrinking its balance sheet, the US government will be expanding its balance sheet.”
Schiff says as the supply of dollars is going to grow and grow, the demand for the American currency can fall, while the US Fed will be unable to stop the dollar’s demise. Schiff says that what is coming for Americans, is massive inflation.
“Eventually, what’s going to happen is it’s going to be the demand for those dollars is going to collapse, not the supply. And when the demand for dollars collapses, then the price of the dollar collapses. You get massive inflation. That is what is coming.”
Peter Schiff, who accurately predicted the 2008 recession has been warning of a dollar collapse for some time now. The “phony recovery” experienced in the US will not last forever, and inflation of epic proportions is on the horizon.